系统地介绍了耦合灾害风险基本理论。首先,给出了耦合灾害风险的定义;其次,基于灾害系统理论和灾害风险评估理论,对耦合灾害风险进行了分类,进而分别从相关性、力的合成和风险矩阵三个方面讨论了其耦合效应;最后,根据类型和耦合效应,借助物理学中的触发器讨论耦合灾害风险形成机理,并分别举例说明了耦合效应及其形成机理。这些较为完整的基础理论为下一步耦合灾害风险评估的研究工作奠定理论基础;为防灾减灾提供对策与建议:避免“强耦合”效应的产生就应从源头上切除或削弱耦合灾害风险的产生条件,实现或转化为“零耦合”或“弱耦合”。
This paper systematically introduces the basic theory of coupled disaster risk. Definition of coupled disaster risk was first given, then, based on disaster system theory and disaster risk assessment theory, the classification of coupled disaster risk was discussed, and the coupled effects were analyzed from three perspectives of the correlation,forces' composition and risk matrix. Then, formation mechanism of the coupled disaster risk was discussed by triggers in physics, and the coupled effects and formation mechanism were illustrated, respectively. The complete basic theory on coupled disaster risk not only lays the theoretical foundation for the further study of coupled risk assessment, but also provides the countermeasures and suggestions for disaster prevention and mitigation, i. e. , strong coupled effects should be turned into zero coupled effects or weak coupled effects through fundamental removing or weakening the conditions of coupled risk.