基于2010-2015年我国150家农村商业银行微观数据,实证分析农村商业银行资本结构对风险的影响,以定位农村商业银行资本结构中可能存在的风险因素,进而提出规避农商行风险建议。结果显示:一级核心资本中,盈余公积和一般风险准备比例提高能有效化解风险;资本结构内部的股权结构对风险影响并不显著,显示了我国农商行股权结构的严重缺陷,且员工股提高将带来高风险;内部的债务结构存款占比越高,风险越高。
This paper studies the impact of the capital structure of rural commercial banks on risks by analyzing the micro-data from 2010 to 2015 of 150 rural commercial banks in China. In which way can the possible risk factors in the capital structure of rural commercial banks be found, then we bring forward the recommendations to avoid the risk above. The results show that: in the core of tier one capital, both the surplus public accumulation and the in- crease of general risk preparation proportion can effectively resolve the risk. Also, since the effects of ownership structure within the capital structure on risk is not significant, the ownership structure of China's agricultural banks may have serious shortcomings, besides the increase of staff stocks will also bring high risk. Moreover, the higher the proportion of internal debt structure deposits is, the higher the risk will be.