中文摘要：

在分析钱塘江流域水资源供需情况的基础上，得出当前水资源承载压力度为1．369，处于超负荷状态。同时，基于灰色系统动态模型，对规划水平年（2015年）的水资源承载对象特征要素进行预测，根据区域水资源实际供需情况，设置3种不同方案分析规划年的水资源承载状态，结果显示：3种方案下水资源承载状态均为轻负荷；当保证率P=90％，水资源承载状态均为超负荷。在此基础上，提出基于水资源承载力的流域可持续发展判定方法。为了寻求水资源承载状态与社会经济可持续发展的最佳平衡点，必须按照以供定需的原则，合理安排生活、生产和生态环境用水，才能实现流域社会经济和生态环境的协调和可持续发展。

英文摘要：

According to different levels of economic growth and guarantee rates（P）, carrying states of water resources in the base year and the planning year are studied based on an analysis of the supply-demand condition of the water resources in the Qiantang River basin. The results show that the value of water resources carrying-pressing index in base year （2003） is 1. 369, which indicates that the carrying capacity of water resources is beyond its carrying capacity. Meanwhile, carrying capacity is in a light load condition under three schemes （when P=10%, P=50%）; however, when P=90%, carrying capacity is overloaded. Evaluation method of the basin＇s sustainable development on the basis of carrying capacity of water resources is proposed. In order to find the best balance between carrying capacity and sustainable social and economic development, water for life, agriculture, ecology and industry need to be arranged properly according to the principle of supply determining demand.