中文摘要：

2015年是人民币入选SDR货币篮子的重要窗口期，社会各界都密切关注人民币能否通过IMF审核加入SDR。纳入人民币的SDR货币篮子将产生怎样的变化，是否会对SDR债务国有所冲击？已有研究缺乏对上述问题的深入讨论。本文采用情景分析模型．在不同假设条件下量化测算不同时点人民币加入SDR货币篮子对SDR组成权重、价值稳定性和货币单位利率的冲击影响。研究发现：如果人民币能尽快加入货币篮子，对SDR美元价格的影响很小：实行更有弹性的浮动汇率制度能够减少人民币对SDR短期波动性造成的冲击：人民币的加入对SDR短期价值和长期均衡价值都不会产生趋势性冲击：纳入人民币对SDR货币单位利率产生的国际冲击不大，并不会明显增加SDR债务国的负担．

英文摘要：

The year 2015 is the important window period of RMB joining SDR basket. Whether RMB can join the SDR has become a hot topic within all fields. If RMB succeed in joining SDR, what changes it will bring to SDR and whether it will have an impact on SDR debtors are questions that have not been answered in fully details. The paper studies the impact of RMB joining the SDR quantitatively by using the scenario analysis model. The main conclusions are as follows： the impact on the SDR value in U.S. dollars will be small if RMB could join SDR basket as soon as possible. Also, a more flexible exchange rates regime can weaken the impact of the inclusion of RMB to SDR basket. In addition, the inclusion of RMB would not produce a trend shock on both the short-term and the long-term equilibrium value of SDR basket. Furthermore, the impact to the SDR interest rate by the inclusion of RMB to SDR basket is limited. It would not increase the burden of the debtor countries obviously.