中文摘要：

应急时间可靠性是评价震后路网性能的一项重要指标,对应急交通管理有重要意义。本文基于震后路段阻断风险概率、通行时间波动性及路径选择偏好的分析,构建应急救援到达时间可靠度GERT模型,并提出了GERTS仿真算法。最后,通过一个算例验证了该模型算法的可行性与有效性。

英文摘要：

As an important evaluating indicator of the transportation system after disaster,emergency time reliability has the important research value in the transportation management aspect. This paper analyzes three main influence factors of link travel time reliability： the road blocking risk probability, travel time varying volatility, road probability selection. Then, the GERT model on emergency time reliabilit is established and he GERTS simulation algorithm is proposed. Finally, an example is employed to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the model.