中文摘要：

本文基于2014年中国5省1450户城乡调查数据，采用双尾截取Tobit模型考察了收入和城市化对巴氏奶和常温奶消费结构的影响。结果表明，尽管当前常温奶占中国市场的主导地位，但随着居民收入水平的持续提高和城市化的推进，巴氏奶的市场份额将显著上升。在不考虑不消费牛奶的家庭并假定其他条件不变时，收入增长与城市化导致的家庭巴氏奶消费占比将最高达34．9％，远高于当前的22．7％。考虑到收入与城市化对中国城乡居民牛奶消费总量也有显著正影响，这意味着，未来较长—段时期内，中国城乡居民对巴氏奶需求总量的增长速度会比巴氏奶消费占比的增长速度更快，这无疑将显著改变中国当前液态奶市场的基本格局。由于巴氏奶与常温奶对加工、储运、零售等环节的要求截然不同，需求端的这一结构性变化趋势必将直接影响中国奶业发展的路径选择、区域布局和贸易格局等。因此，本文结论对中国牛奶相关产业的供给侧改革有重要参考意义。

英文摘要：

By using a Tobit model and the 2014 survey data collected from 1450 urban and rural households from five provinces in China, this article estimates the impact of income growth and urbanization on the consumption structure of pasteurized milk and ultra-high-temperature treated （UHT） milk. The results show that, despite the fact that UHT milk still plays a predominant role in the fluid milk market in China, income growth and urbanization are significantly and positively influencing milk consumption and the share of pasteurized milk, suggesting a proportionally higher growth for pasteurized milk relative to UHT milk in the future. Without considering families with zero milk consumption, income growth and urbanization are expected to lead the share of pasteurized milk up to 34.9%, far above the current level of 22.7%. As the required processing and logistic infrastructure and conditions differ between pasteurized milk and UHT milk, these trends of fluid milk consumption structure would directly affect the production model, regional allocation and trade pattems of China＇s dairy industry development. The findings have important policy implications for the ongoing supply-side reform of the dairy sector.