中文摘要：

基于国际上较通用的Lund-Potsdam-Jena（LPJ）模型,根据中国自然环境特点对其运行机制进行调整,并重新进行了参数化,以B2情景气候数据作为主要的输入数据,以1961—1990年为基准时段,模拟了中国1991—2080自然植被净初级生产力（NPP）对气候变化的响应.结果表明：1961—1990年,中国自然植被的NPP总量为3.06 Pg C.a-1;1961—2080年,NPP总量呈波动下降趋势,且下降速度逐渐加快.在降水相对变化不大的条件下,平均温度的增加对我国植被生产力可能会产生一定的负面影响.NPP的空间分布从东南沿海向西北内陆呈逐渐递减趋势,在气候变化过程中,该格局基本没有太大变化.在东部NPP值相对较高地区,NPP值以减少为主,东北地区、华北东部和黄土高原地区的减少趋势尤为明显;在西部NPP值相对较低地区,NPP以增加趋势为主,青藏高原地区和塔里木盆地的表现尤为突出.随着气候变化的深入,东西部地区这种变化趋势的对比将越发明显.

英文摘要：

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model（LPJ） for climate change study,and according to the features of natural environment in China,the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted,and the parameters were modified.With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period,the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity（NPP） in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios（SRES） B2 scenario.In 1961-1990,the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C·a-1;in 1961-2080,the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend,with an accelerated decreasing rate.Under the condition of slight precipitation change,the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP.Spatially,the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland,and this pattern would have less variation under climate change.In eastern China with higher NPP,especially in Northeast China,east of North China,and Loess Plateau,the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend;while in western China with lower NPP,especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin,the NPP would be increased.With the intensive climate change,such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.