中文摘要：

潜在湿地分布的空间信息对于提高湿地制图精度、理解湿地空间分布的变化规律以及制定湿地恢复政策等都具有重要意义．地形特征对湿地的分布具有决定作用，通过采用滤波方法识别真实洼地，并结合气候降水和蒸发资料，提高了地形特征（气候地形指数）的模拟精度；基于气候地形指数的空间分布特征及其与潜在湿地分布的时空关系，采用众数统计方法，模拟中国潜在湿地分布．该方法不仅具有一定的物理基础，而且避免了复杂分布式参数的获取和模型的数值求解，更适用于大尺度湿地分布研究．基于多年的气象数据资料的模拟结果表明：中国潜在湿地约为58．18×10^4km2，其中沼泽湿地面积约为32．50×10^4km2，水体面积约为25．68×10^4km2，主要分布在西北部的青藏、新疆地区，东北部内蒙、黑龙江和吉林地区，以及华北平原和长江流域．与已有湿地模拟结果对比表明：模拟结果在空间分辨率（90m）和精度方面都有所提高；与全国湿地调查结果在空间分布格局上具有较高的一致性．该结果为进一步提高湿地遥感制图精度、制定湿地恢复策略等提供了重要的支撑．

英文摘要：

Knowing the spatial distribution of potential wetlands is vital for improving wetland mapping accuracy, understanding the spatial evolution of wetlands, and making policies for wetland conservation and restoration. Topographic characteristics are key factors for wetland distribution. We first separated natural sinks from false sinks in DEM data by using window filtering, which proved to be more accurate than threshold approaches. We then developed the China CLTI （climato-topographic index） by combining the past 50 years＇ average precipitation and evaporation data in China. A statistical method which was based on the relationship of wetland spatial distribution and CLTI distribution, was used to simulate the spatial distribution of China potential wetlands, and proved to be efficient and practical. This approach was simpler than approaches requiring the parameterization and solution of complicated hydrological models. The maximum distribution of Chinese wetlands, which was developed based on the union of four Chinese wetland maps （1978, 1990, 2000 and 2008）, was input as the model main parameter. The distribution of simulated Chinese potential wetlands is consistent with the investigation of Chinese wetlands. Compared with previous studies, our simulated potential wetland spatial distribution has finer spatial resolution and high accuracy. According to the simulation, there are potentially about 325000 square kilometers of marshes and 256800 square kilometers of water bodies in China, mainly distributed in the northwest （mainly in Tibet, Qinghai, and Xinjiang）, northeast （mainly in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Jilin）, the North China Plain and the Yangtze River Basin. This research laid a foundation for modeling wetlands changes across China by using dynamic climatic variables and land cover and land use.