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中文摘要：
目的针对南水北调中线水源区目前现状，对水环境容量进行科学预测。方法采用灰色系统预测模型、一维水质预测模型和水环境容量预测模型对南水北调中线水源区汉、丹江流域陕西段水环境容量进行预测。结果预测结果显示随着经济等各行业的发展，水源区汉、丹江流域陕西段的水环境容量在逐年减少。结论加强水污染治理、污染物排放控制和生态环境的保护势在必行。
英文摘要：
Aim Through inspecting the water source area of Hanjiang and Danjiang River basin in Shaanxi of Middle Line Project of Transferring Water from South to North, in view of the water source area present situation, to forecast the water environment capacity. Methods Using the grey system forecast model, one-dimensional water quality forecast model, and water environmental capacity forecast model are forecasting the water environment capacity of the water source area of Hanjiang and Danjiang River basin in Shaanxi of Middle Line Project of Transferring water from South to North. Results The results showed that the economic development of various trades, water environmental capacity about Hanjiang and Danjiang River basin for the water source area in Shaanxi is reducing year by year. Conclusion Water pollution treatment, pollutant emission control and protection of ecological environment are imperative.
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