中文摘要：

构建了基于动态CGE模型的中国能源-经济-环境政策模型,对能源技术进行了刻画并嵌入了资源耗竭模块,分析了化石能源供应约束对中国中长期经济发展和CO_2排放的影响,结果显示,能源供给约束将对未来中国经济的发展空间起重要作用,由于化石能源供给约束,与基准情景相比,2020年后GDP增速将降低0.7%左右,2050年GDP总量减少17%,CO_2排放峰值出现在2034年前后.低碳发展情景下,产业结构升级和居民消费结构调整等措施可以减轻对化石能源的依赖,缓解化石能源供给约束对经济增长的负面影响,CO_2排放峰值提前到2030年前后,低碳发展情景是在完全不承诺减排与承诺激进减排目标之间的一个平衡点,可以在不影响中长期经济发展目标的同时,通过自身努力实现CO_2的绝对量减排。

英文摘要：

The Chinese energy-environment-economy model which described the technology-specific infor- mation and integrated the resource depletion was developed to simulate the economic impact and long-term CO2 emission perspective considering the impact of fossil fuel supply constraint. The results illustrate that energy supply constraint plays a crucial role in future economy. The projections put the annual GDP growth rate around 0.7% lower than the baseline after 2020, and the GDP decrease 17% compared to the baseline in 2050. The CO2 emission peak around 2034 under the constraint supply of fossil fuel. Whereas, the economic growth is less dependent on fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emission peak earlier by 2030 under the low carbon development scenario, and the negative impact on GDP from finite fossil fuel supply can be alleviated by the upgrading of industry and the adjustment of household consumption structure. Considering the tradeoff between economic growth and CO2 mitigation, the low carbon development scenario seems to be a balance condition between without any commitment and ambitious pledges. China realizes the absolute emission re- duction through domestic efforts under the low carbon development scenario.