中文摘要：

针对金竹山矿业公司土朱煤矿煤层赋存条件，依据采动理论的裂缝垂直分带模型，分析地表沉降和塌陷的机理；提出在采煤活动阶段应进行地表实际位移观测，经数据处理后得到地面沉降曲线，以确保地面人类活动的安全；在采煤活动后阶段则实施灰色预测地面沉降，即通过采煤活动阶段的地表实际观测数据为历史原始数据序列，建立灰色Logistic模型；并对采煤活动后阶段的地面沉降进行预测。精度检验表明：灰色Logistic模型预测精度高，利用该模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费和实时提供预警信息，以确保开采区域内人们生命财产安全。

英文摘要：

On the basis of the soil conditions in Tuzhu Coal Mine of Jinzhushan Mining Company, the mechanism of surface subsidence and collapse was analyzed according to the vertical zoning model of fissures in mining theory. It is proposed that, to ensure the safety of human activities on ground, the actual displacement of surface in the mining phase should be observed, and the surface subsidence curve should be obtained through processing these observing data. In the late stage of mining, the surface subsidence is predicted based on grey model, that is, with the actual observation data of the surface as the original history data sequence, the grey Logistic model is built and the surface subsidence is predicted. The test results show that the prediction precision for this grey Logistic model is high. This model can reduce the outlay of surface subsidence monitoring and provide real-time warning information, so as to ensure the security of people and properties in exploitation regions.