中文摘要：

温室效应不是气候变化的唯一因素，温室气体的主体不是二氧化碳而是水汽．当水汽凝聚为云，就会遮蔽阳光，起到降温作用．太阳辐射量变化不足以解释气候变化的振幅，关键在于存在太阳能量积累和释放的多种效应，其中“海底藏冷效应”和“海洋锅炉效应”最为显著．太阳能在地球各圈层的不同分配也是地表气候变化的原因之一，其中“地磁层漏能效应”和“臭氧洞漏能效应”最为显著．气候变化周期是天文周期微力激发的结果，其能量来自太阳能量的长期积累．目前处于1500~1800年气候周期的变暖高峰，200年气候周期的变冷初期，60年气候周期的变冷阶段．本文通过历史资料反复核对，证实太阳黑子延长极小期、太阳黑子周期长度大于11年时期、潮汐极大期、低温有明显的对应关系，已经查出重复出现两个连续周期，除太阳活动变化外，强潮汐是其形成的原因．全球气候有准60年、200年、18000年等周期，这些周期与潮汐周期有很好的对应关系．特别是179~200年周期，在太阳黑子活动、潮汐变化和冷暖变化中都有明显的表现，形成对应的周期规律．分析结果显示，气候冷暖变化的原因不只限于大气层本身，而确有可用于气候预测的星体运行的变化信息．规律表明，2007年开始的太阳黑子延长极小期和潮汐极大期使我国可能进入严重低温冻害时期，并将在2020年达到高潮，必须做好预防准备．

英文摘要：

The greenhouse is not only one effect of global worming and CO2 is not the most inportant factor of greenhouse, but water vapor. The water vapor may close over the sun, if the water vapor become in to cloud. Because the energy of the sun can get together into other form of energy, we can explain the natural huge change by the solar energy, such as ＂cold energy into the bottom of the ocean＂ and ＂sea become into boiler＂. The other reason is the different distribution of solar energy in to different layeres of the earth, such as energy leak in ozonosphere and magnetic sphere. The climatic changes have an approximately-60-year oscillation, an approximately 200-year oscillation, an approximately-1800-year oscillation, et al. , which are corresponded with tides circle. Therein, lunar oscillation circle with a 179-200-year has a significant function in sunspot, tide oscillations and the circles of climatic change. The research results show that climatic changes are not only the result of the atmosphere itself, but also related to someinformation on variation of planet movement which could be used for climate forecasting. The sunspot prolonged minimum began in 2007, the regulation shows that global changes may enter into low temperature and chilliness flood from 2007, and achieve climax from 2020, the protection against low temperature should be ready. AlO-year prediction has the sun devoid of sunspots when it should be covered with them. Sunspots might disappear entirely for the first time in approximately 400 years, a hibernating sun would have only a slight cooling effect on climate.