选取金融相关率和人均国内生产总值两个指标,采用相关分析、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验探讨改革开放以来河南省金融发展与经济增长的关系。结果表明:河南省金融发展与经济增长呈高度正相关,长期均衡,并存在经济增长引领金融发展的单向因果关系,金融发展对经济增长的推动作用不显著;金融发展水平受其前期影响巨大且显著,经济增长对金融发展存在滞后两期的促进作用。与发达地区相比,河南省金融发展滞后经济增长,这可能与金融制度改革有关,同时也受中原传统文化和金融结构的影响。最后提出发展河南省金融业的建议。
In this paper,FIR and GDP per capita are selected as two indicators and the relationship of financial development with economic growth in Henan is probed since reforming and opening up using relationship analysis, co-integration analysis and Granger Causality Test. The results show that: there is a high positive correlation and a long-time stably equilibrium between financial development and economic growth in Henan. Besides, there is a one-way causal relationship between them that economic growth promotes financial development, however financial development doesn't significantly promote economic growth. Economic growth has a two cross-lagged promoting influence on the financial development. Compared with the developed areas, financial development lags behind economic growth in Henan. It may be relates to financial system reform,and is impacted by traditional culture and financial structure. At last,some recommendations are put forward to develop financial industry in Henan.