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中文摘要：
将太原盆地划分为4个区段,利用近年来在各区段取得的古地震数据,通过实时概率模型,对每个区段分别进行强震潜势的定量评估。得出太原-文水区与太谷区未来50年内发生7级以上强震的概率分别为7.1%和15%,100年内为13.9%与27.8%,而介休-平遥区与汾阳区发生7级以上强震的可能性极小。
英文摘要：
The Taiyuan basin is divided into four sections： the Taiyuan-Wenshui area and the Fenyang area,the Taigu area and the Jiexiu-Pingyao area.The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Taiyuan basin is analysed,with real-time probability model,the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section.The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Taiyuan-Wenshui area,the Taigu area in the next 50 years are 7.1%,15%,in the next 100 years are 13.9%,27.8%,while the Fenyang and the Taigu areas have very low possibility of earthquake larger than magnitude 7.
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