从产值、进出口、价格、货币供应量等多维度测算宏观经济不确定性指标;并基于银行资产和收益率数据测算微观层面的不确定性指标。在此基础上,使用2001-2013年我国金融机构微观研究样本,实证检验了商业银行信贷供给对经济不确定性的敏感性。结果表明:在控制供需因素变量的全样本条件下,经济不确定性对商业银行信贷供给产生负向影响;银行信贷供给对宏观经济不确定性变量的敏感性较强,而对微观经济不确定性变量的敏感性较弱;相对于外资银行而言,中资银行信贷供给对经济不确定性的敏感性更强。基于结论,提出了完善金融监管机制及货币政策制定等相关政策启示。
The paper builds macroeconomic uncertainty index from the perspectives of production, import and export, price and monetary supply; and builds microeconomic uncertainty index based on the financial in- stitutions data of asset and earning rate. Further, based on the panel data of financial institutions for the 2001 -2013 periods, the paper empirically tests the effect of economic uncertainty on credit growth in China. The results show that: under the condition of controlling the relevant variables, economic uncertainty produces a negative impact on credit growth ; the bank credit growth is more sensitive to the aggregated macroeconomic un- certainty and less sensitive to the bank level microeconomic uncertainty; and the Chinese banks credit growth is more sensitive to the economic uncertainty than the foreign banks. This provides empirical support for the improvement of financial supervisions and monetary policies.