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中国入境旅游需求预测的神经网络集成模型研究
  • ISSN号:1000-0690
  • 期刊名称:地理科学
  • 时间:2011
  • 页码:1208-1212
  • 分类:F59[经济管理—旅游管理;经济管理—产业经济]
  • 作者机构:南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210000
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金项目“闲暇时间约束对区域短期旅游流空间模式的影响研究”(41001070)和“突发危机事件对旅游目的地社会地理的时空模式研究”(41171121)资助
  • 相关项目:闲暇时间约束对区域短期旅游流空间模式的影响研究
作者: 张郴|张捷|
中文摘要:

突发危机事件严重影响旅游业的持续健康发展,国内客源市场是中国旅游目的地市场构成的主体,研究国内客源市场受危机事件的空间影响规律,有助于增进理论认识并为恢复目的地的旅游业发展提供借鉴指导。文章以经历过2008年"5·12"汶川地震的九寨沟景区为例,以国内客源市场为研究对象,以地震前后第一手抽样调查资料为数据源运用地理集中度指数、客源市场半径、距离累计曲线等方法,引入"冲击波"的思想,对不同距离的客源市场恢复特点进行归纳。研究发现:自然灾害型危机事件后,景区客源市场地理集中度指数降低而客源吸引半径增加,表明危机事件对距离较近的客源市场冲击较大,使客源市场构成趋于分散。不同距离国内客源市场累计曲线进一步验证,邻近客源市场份额显著减少,表明邻近市场受自然灾害型危机事件冲击影响大,是危机事件的反应敏感区;远距离客源市场份额相对增加,表明远距离客源市场需求受影响相对小,是灾后旅游市场构成的稳健区;中等距离客源市场份额增减情况不一致,表明中等距离客源市场是灾后恢复的潜力区。依据研究结果,文章构建了自然型危机事件国内客源市场影响规律的概念模型,提出市场恢复的建议。

英文摘要:

Crisis management for tourist destinations is of great value to the sustainable development of the tourism industry and has become a hot issue as of late. Tourism is a highly sensitive industry because of its immense correlation with other service businesses. A crisis event- such as a natural disaster, a terrorist attack, a public health threat, among others- may present challenges for the tourism industry, and could have a negative impact on popular destinations. The Wenchuan Earthquake on May12 th in 2008, an 8- magnitude earthquake on the Richter scale in China's Sichuan Province, was the most destructive earthquake since the 1940 s. The earthquake brought casualties and near complete destruction of the main roads to Jiuzhai Valley. Our focus is the Jiuzhai Valley scenic spot, which is more than 300 km from where the earthquake hit. The Wenchuan Earthquake struck Jiuzhai Valley's tourism industry severely, reducing tourist arrivals by 74.5% in 2008 compared to the previous year.Jiuzhai Valley's main domestic markets include those located short distances from the main scenic spot and those in remote areas further away. The current literature mostly covers research of different kinds of crisis using available data on inbound or outbound tourist arrivals, while scholars rarely research the impact and the resilience of the domestic tourist market. This paper aims to enhance the awareness of the tourist market and provide theoretical support for tourism recovery. We collected data through firsthand tourist sampling with pieces of data ranging from 1495 to 2333 in number in May 2008, May2009, May 2011 and August 2011. Several indexes are used to analyze tourist market changes,including the spatial concentration index(SCI) of tourist origins, attraction radius(AR), and the distance decay curve. We lead with the"shock wave effect". Our research found that after a natural crisis, the SCI value of Jiuzhai Valley decreased and AR increased, indicating that crisis struck the short distance market severel

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期刊信息
  • 《地理科学》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中科院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院 东北地理与农业生态研究所
  • 主编:陆大道
  • 地址:长春市高新北区盛北大街4888号
  • 邮编:130012
  • 邮箱:geoscien@iga.ac.cn
  • 电话:0431-85542212 85542217
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1000-0690
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:22-1124/P
  • 邮发代号:8-31
  • 获奖情况:
  • 中国自然科学核心期刊,中国地理学会优秀地理期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 俄罗斯文摘杂志,荷兰文摘与引文数据库,美国剑桥科学文摘,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:39183