中文摘要：

在对产品性能退化和环境冲击载荷进行分析的基础上，提出了一种新的产品可靠性评估方法。首先，根据试验性能退化数据建立了基于随机系数多元分布的统计模型，实现了对产品性能连续退化过程的分析，并通过基于泊松过程的冲击载荷模型来分析产品的离散退化过程，然后通过退化量累积得到产品实际性能退化量分布函数，提高了对产品实际可靠性评估的准确性。最后，某金属材料性能退化的可靠性分析结果验证了该可靠性评估方法的有效性。

英文摘要：

A new reliability evaluation method was presented based on the analysis of performance degradation and environmental shock loads. Firstly, according to the performance degradation data, a statistic model based on random coefficient multivariate distribution was given for the analysis of continuous degradation process. A model of shock loads based on Poisson process was used to analyze discrete degradation process. Then the distribution function of actual degradation was obtained by the accumulation of degradation to improve the accuracy of reliability evaluation. Finally, the results of reliability evaluation of metal material performance degradation verify the correctness of this method.