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一种改进的生成区域日降水场的方法及精度分析
  • ISSN号:1000-0585
  • 期刊名称:地理研究
  • 时间:0
  • 页码:1161-1168
  • 语言:中文
  • 分类:P228.4[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程;天文地球—测绘科学与技术] P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
  • 作者机构:[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京100101
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金项目(40671033);国家“863”计划项目(2006AA102228)和中国科学院地理科学与资源所领域前沿项目(066U0607SZ)资助.
中文摘要:

利用全国687个气象站点11年的日降水数据,对基于地理特征和统计回归的函数拟合类模型DAYMET生成中国区域日降水场的能力进行了验证。交叉验证表明,DAYMET模型估计日降水累计得到的年降水量的绝对偏差11年平均为29.8%,年降水总量估计偏差低于20%的站点占48.3%。鉴于中国陆地区域降水深受季风的影响,不同方位气象站点对插值点的影响也有所不同,引入了站点不同方位对插值的影响权重,对DAYMET模型进行了改进,改进后年降水量的绝对偏差降为27%。与梯度距离平方反比法相比,该方法具有较高的区域降水插值精度。还以无定河流域降水插值为例,说明降水插值精度的高低与区域内雨量站点的多寡紧密相联。

英文摘要:

Based on daily records of precipitation from 687 weather stations over China from 1990 to 2000, we interpolate and validate daily precipitation interpolation using DAYMET. The technique interpolates on a systematic grid daily precipitation from surrounding stations based on the principles of a weighted Gaussian filter. In this study we calibrated DAYMET using the China climate data base and modified DAYMET considering the dif- ferent effects of the dimensional orientation of surrounding stations on the local point in- terpolation, which allows us to interpolate daily precipitation for any location within the country. We validated the technique using crossing validation, and compared the MAE to the result of the methods named gradient plus inverse distance squared (GIDS). Our re- sults can be summarized as follows: without modification, the mean absolute error(MAE) of daily precipitation interpolation using DAYMET is 1.8ram, the value for GIDS is 2.2ram, and the MAE for annual total precipitation is 29.8 ~/00 for DATMET. After modifi- cation, the MAE of annual precipitation for DAYMET is 27%. The reason for considering high MAE of the two methods is that the weather stations in China are sparsely distributed in space, especially in Western China. To decrease the MAE of interpolation, the addition of the precipitation observations from hydrological station network should be considered. We chose Wudinghe Basin located in Western China with an area of 30261 kmz, only 3 weather stations, but 93 precipitaition stations of" hydrological station network, to test it. With the surrounding 30 climate stations, the interpolation MAE of annual precipitation is 77mm(28%) for DAYMET,but aided by precipitation stations of hydrological station net- work, the MAE is 48mm(12. 1%).

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期刊信息
  • 《地理研究》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  • 主编:刘毅
  • 地址:北京安外大屯路甲11号
  • 邮编:100101
  • 邮箱:dlyj@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-64889584
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1000-0585
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-1848/P
  • 邮发代号:2-110
  • 获奖情况:
  • 中国地理优秀期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:45649