中文摘要：

使用全球中期数值预报模式T213L31，对不同的土壤湿度初值对边界层物理量预报的影响进行敏感试验分析。试验表明土壤湿度初值的准确性非常重要，其变化导致模式计算的感热通量、潜热通量、地表温度和2m温度发生较大变化。而当使用与观测值相近的土壤湿度初值时得到的边界层物理量（如2m温度）更加准确。通过使用固定值与6h预报的背景场加权平均作为土壤湿度的初值，改进原有采用固定值的方法，经过检验模式系统，2m温度的预报误差明显减小。

英文摘要：

Sensitive tests are done to research the impact of initial soil moisture to the forecast of boundary layer variables, using T213L31, NMC global medium-term numerical prediction model system. The tests show the correction of the initial soil moisture is very important, its change lead to the change of sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, skin temperature and 2 m temperature those were calculated by the model. When using more reliable initial soil moisture that is similar to observation, the boundary layer variables, such as 2 m temperature, are more correct. Using of weighted average of the specific soil moisture from ECWMF and forecasting soil moisture as initial soil moisture, the error of 2 m temperature become smaller than before.