中文摘要：

遵循Sloan的经典研究思路,从分析师对盈余构成持续性差异区分的角度,对我国分析师盈余预测的有效性进行了实证研究。研究发现,我国的财务分析师高估了所有盈余构成的持续性,其发布的盈余预测虽然能够反映出应计利润的低持续性和现金流量的高持续性,但不能恰当地反映出操控性应计利润与非操控性应计利润之间的持续性差异。进一步的研究表明,财务分析师对盈余构成持续性的高估会显著影响其整体盈余预测准确度,这意味着我国财务分析师发布的盈余预测是有一定信息含量的,但在应对复杂会计信息时仍显不足。

英文摘要：

This paper empirically studies on the effectiveness of Chinese financial analysts＇ earnings forecasting based on whether analysts can correctly distinguish earnings components with different persistence in the spirit of Sloan＇s（1996） study.The authors find that although they overestimate the persistence of earnings components,analysts＇ earnings forecasting can reflect the different persistence between accruals and cash flows,and do not reflect that between discretionary and non-discretionary accruals.Further study shows that the overestimation of persistence of earnings components has a significant impact on its overall earnings forecast accuracy.This indicates that there is certain information content in analysts＇ earnings forecast,however,analysts may fall a little short on dealing with complex accounting information.This paper maybe has an apocalypse to the study on fundamental analysis ability of analysts in China.