欢迎您！东篱公司
退出
-
申报数据库
-
立项数据库
-
成果数据库
-
项目获奖数据库
中文摘要：
分析了系统在稳态阶段的实时预测反馈调度分流过程，采用马尔可夫过程和系统动力学模型，对系统小时域内的景区客流状况进行预测，结合仿真调度引擎，以构建景区旅游管理耗散结构为目标，为景区旅游管理人员提供有效的实时分流方案，缓解有限的景区旅游环境承载力与日益增长的游客规模之间的矛盾。为解决景区旅游复杂系统动态性和预测性的现实问题奠定了理论基础。
英文摘要：
This paper analyzes the real-time forecasting feedback diversion process of the system in the steady state and predicts tourist flow in an hour using both Markov process and system dynamic model. In order to build dissipative struc- ture of tourism management, it combines the prediction engine with scheduling simulation engine, and provides effective real-time diversion program for the scenic tour managers. This study may ease the contradiction between limited environ- mental carrying capacity and the growing scale of the tourist visitors, and establish the theoretical foundation for tourist complex system to solve the dynamics and predictability of the real problems.
同期刊论文项目
同项目期刊论文
Simulation and Prediction of Decarbonated Development in Tourist Attractions Associated with Low-car
A new improved forecasting method integrated fuzzy time series with the exponential smoothing method
A Satisfaction Evaluation Method for Scenic Spot based on Linguistic Weighted Arithmetic Average Ope
Evaluation Model Construction and Simulation Research on Tourist Diversion Strategy in Ecotourism Sc
Research on Scenic Spot’s Sustainable Development Based on a SD Model: A Case Study of the Jiuzhai V
Modeling and Pareto optimization of multi-objective order scheduling problems in production planning
Research on Diffluent Network Prediction Model of Ecotourim Scenic Spot Based on the Dynamic Fuzzy C
The Dynamic Coordinated Development of a Regional Environment-Tourism-Economy System: A Case Study f
期刊信息
位置：