中文摘要：

总产出波动及其影响因素研究是理论界和决策部门长期以来关注的热点问题。近年来，多位学者研究发现，部门冲击能否汇聚形成总产出波动与产业网络结构有关，基于产业网络的分析框架成为研究总产出波动的新范式。以中国投入产出数据为基础，构建中国产业网络模型，采用与大数定律相比较的方法，研究中国产业网络结构对总产出波动的影响。研究发现，中国产业网络的供给结构是不对称的，少数产业作为供应枢纽为大多数产业提供直接或间接投入，这种不对称性延长了部门冲击对总产出波动影响的时间，放大了影响的程度，成为导致总产出波动的重要诱因。与Acemoglu的研究结论相比较，发现中国产业网络结构对总产出波动的影响程度小于美国。

英文摘要：

The study on aggregate fluctuations and its influence factors, which have attracted much attention for a long time, are hot topics in theoretical research and decision-making departments. Many scholars studied the issues from the perspective of industry network structure in recent years, considering aggregate fluctuations is associated with industry network structure, and the analysis framework based on industry network has become a new paradigm. This paper constructs the industry network model of China based on the input-output data, using the method of comparison with the law of large numbers and adopting the weighted degree for the index of industry network structure to study the effect of industry network structure of China on aggregate fluctuations. The study finds that the industry network of China is asymmetric with a small number of industries serving as supply hubs for most industries. This asymmetry prolongs and amplifies the impact of department shocks on aggregate fluctuations, and has become an important incentive for the aggregate fluctuations. However, compared with the research of Acemoglu, the asymmetric degree fluctuations is larger than China.