中文摘要：

文章通过建立中美两国TV—FAVAR模型，考察了中美经济因素、人民币-美元实际汇率波动对中美贸易差额等主要经济变量的动态影响。结果表明：人民币-美元实际汇率升值在降低出口增速的同时，对进口增速也具有弱的负向冲击；美国经济因素对中国向美出口的影响，在中国加入WTO和次贷危机前后具有较大差异，且在次贷危机之后发生了结构性的变化。分析认为，人民币-美元实际汇率不是导致中关贸易逆差的根本原因，美国经济增长引致的需求增加是中关贸易差额的重要原因．但在次贷危机后又有新的变化。

英文摘要：

This paper establishes a Sino-US TV-FAVAR model to analyze the dynamic effect of Sino-US economic factors and real exchange rate fluctuations on Sino-US trade balance. The results show that the appreciation of RMB-dollar real exchange rate decreases the export growth rate, and also brings a weaker negative impact on the import growth rate; the fluctuation of U.S. economic factors has different impacts on Chinese export to US before and after China＇s accession to the WTO and the financial crisis. The analysis indicates that RMB exchange rate is not the root cause of US trade balance, while the increased demand caused by US economic growth is an important reason for Sino-US trade balance, but there are some new changes after the financial crisis.