中文摘要：

为解决大型枢纽机场运行管理中的航班延误问题,建立了基于灰色理论的动态马尔科夫预测模型,对航班延误情况进行预测.将灰色预测拟合值和实际值的误差分为4个区间,根据误差区间状态,运用加权马尔科夫预测下个时间段的误差范围.结合模糊集理论,将预测误差由一个区间值转化为具体值,从而对灰色预测值进行修正,得到了精确度更高的预测值.结合某机场进行实例验证,结果表明：该方法能够使预测结果的精度有了较大提升.

英文摘要：

To solve the severe problem of flight delay in operation and management at large aeronautic hub,a Markov prediction model was established based on the grey theory prediction of airport flight delays was conducted. The errors between fitting values of grey theory and actual values were divided into four intervals,The weighted Markov model was used to predict the range of the error next time. Combining the fuzzy set theory, the predicting error was transformed from an interval value into a specific value, the a prediction value of higher got after the error correction of grey prediction. The verification of on example of a airport result shows that this method can greatly improve the prediction accuracy.