中文摘要：

基于遥感影像和自然社会经济统计数据，较为系统地分析了江西省新建县土地利用变化过程、原因和趋势。变化过程分析先从转入和转出两方面对各土地利用类型的空间转移特征进行分析，然后选取变化幅度和年变化率指标分析了其数量变化特征。变化原因分析得出，经济发展和城镇化、人口增长、地理位置和政策的影响及自然环境因素是导致新建县土地利用变化的驱动因素。变化趋势预测表明，若继续保持1996-2000年的变化速度，耕地和未利用地将持续减少，林地和建设用地呈增长趋势，而草地和水域相对较稳定，草地有下降趋势，水域呈缓慢上升趋向。表3，参8。

英文摘要：

Based on remote sensing image and statistical data in nature, society and economy, the land use change course, reason and trend of Xinjian County in Jiangxi province were analyzed. During the analysis of change course, each land use type spatial feature was illustrated from two aspects including roll-in and roll-out, and corresponding quantity features were analyzed in terms of change extent and annual change ratio. The reasons for the change were pointed out： economy development and urbanization, population growth, geographical position and policy, and natural environment. Change trend prediction was suggested： if continuing to keep up the change rate of 1996 to 2000, arable land and unused land will decrease all along; forest land and construction area show a tendency to increase, however, grassland and water area will be relatively stabilized, grassland showing a tendency to decrease, water area showing a tendency to increase slowly.