利用近30年来共8期覆盖新疆玛纳斯湖地区的遥感影像(1972MSS、1976MSS、1989TM、1999ETM、2000CBERS、2001CBERS、2003CBERS和2004CBERS),最新实测的精度达到1m分辨率的地形等高线数据、野外测量数据,结合20世纪50年代野外实地调查资料等前人研究成果,对玛纳斯湖及周围湖泊演化进行了分析。结果表明:①玛纳斯湖并非迁移湖泊而是古玛纳斯湖群的一部分;玛纳斯湖及周围湖泊自第四纪中期以来一直处于萎缩消亡状态,新构造运动使古玛纳斯湖群萎缩分裂后,残留的各小湖泊在近现代也相继萎缩、消亡;②近50年来湖泊演化可分为两个阶段:湖泊萎缩、干涸的逆向演化阶段(1949—1999/2001)和湖泊恢复的正向演化阶段(1999/2001一至今),人类活动与气候变化的叠加是湖泊演化的主要驱动力。
The changes of water resources and theirs influence on environment are key points for arid researches. This paper mainly focuses on the evolvement of Manas lake in Xinjiang , which is based on the remote sensing images from 1972 to 2004 integrated with measured topographical data in 1999 and other materials from 1950s. The results of this research show that ( 1 ) Manas lake is a part of old Manas lake group and it is not a migratory lake; (2) there are two periods of the lake evolvement in the past 50 years: from 1949 to 1999/2001 and from 1999/2001 to nowadays, which are respectively corresponding to negative and passive evolvement process of Manas lake ; (3) the trend of Lake change is synchronous to the change of Manas river runoff; and (4) the main driving forces for the lake evolvement in the past 50 years are human activities and climate change.