中文摘要：

基于多米诺效应的故障概率模型,结合某化工公司环氧乙烷存储装置,借助ALOHA软件判定装置间的多米诺影响系数。在此基础上,分别应用分析算法和蒙特卡洛模拟算法对考虑到多米诺效应情况下一特定环氧乙烷球罐T_1的失效概率进行计算分析。结果表明,分析算法和蒙特卡洛算法的结果呈现出较好的一致性。并且随着时间的推移,2种方法的吻合度越来越高。本方法的提出有效地简化了考虑多米诺效应情况下多个装置失效概率的计算,所得结论为工厂对球罐间安全屏障的设计提供一定的借鉴作用。

英文摘要：

In this paper, the failure probability model based on domino effect is applied to draw corresponding failure probabilities of tanks containing ethylene oxide in some chemical company. In addition, ALOHA software contributes to the judgment on whether domino effect exists via heat radiation or not. Coefficients of domino effect are obtained combined with two methods above. On this basis, analysis algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation algorithm are applied to calculate failure prob- ability of Tt considering the domino effect from other ethylene oxide storage tanks, respectively. It is found that both results of analysis algorithm and Monte Carlo algorithm reveal declining failure probabilities and exhibit good consistency during operation cycle. What＇ s more, the two results coincides better as time goes by. The proposed method simplifies the calculation of ethylene oxide tank failure probability when considering domino effect, under the circumstance of multiple devices failure effectively. The conclusions can provide some references for the design of safety barriers among the tanks in plants.