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中文摘要：
高速公路交通事故发生后,事故影响范围预测模型是开发高速公路紧急救援管理系统的基本理论。建立事故影响范围模型对事故状态下行程时间的预测以及搜索最佳救援路径等紧急救援管理问题具有重要的现实意义。文中从实际应用角度出发,首先对高速公路事故持续时间进行了划分,之后基于事故持续时间的划分运用集散波理论,建立了高速公路事故影响范围模型。该模型共分为六种情形,文中阐述了各种情形的判定条件。最后考虑在干涉作用下事故影响范围模型的变化。提出了预测干涉措施下事故后出口匝道分流比例的公式。验证当采用干涉措施之后,事故影响范围将缩小。
英文摘要：
The prediction model of traffic accident influence scope is the basic theory to develop expressway emergency management system.This model has important practical significance for travel time prediction under accident situation and searching the best rescue path for traffic accident.From the perspective of practical application,first of all divide incident duration of expressway accidents.Then build the prediction model of expressway traffic accident influence scope on the base of traffic wave theory.This model can be divided into six kinds of situations,also expond decision conditions for every situation.Finally take interference measures after expressway traffic incidents in consider,anlyze how it influences the prediction model of expressway traffic accident influence scope.A shunt proportion prediction formula is put forward to predict shunt proportion after interference measures.Verify that the accident influence scope will shrink after used interference measures.
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