保持粮食总产增加是保障国家粮食安全的重要方面。本研究以统计资料为数据源,综合分析了黑龙江省1981-2011年粮食总产、单产、种植业结构等方面的变化,运用数理统计分析得出粮食增产主要依靠三方面,即作物播种面积扩大、种植业结构调整和作物单产水平提升,旨在为黑龙江省农业可持续发展特别是两大平原现代农业综合配套改革试验区建设提供依据。主要结论有:(1)黑龙江省1981-2011年播种面积由728.2万hm^2增加至1375.9万hm^2,尤其是2004年之后的7年间增加64.47%;(2)水稻、玉米这两类高产作物种植面积比重由1981年的24.73%上升到2011年的67.97%,而大豆、小麦这两类低产作物种植面积比重由1981年的54.79%下降到2011年的28.18%;(3)全省粮食平均单产年均增长2.90%,由1981年的1716.6 kg/hm^2增加至2011年的4048.7 kg/hm^2,增长了135.86%;(4)整个研究期内,粮食总产增加了345.65%。其中,粮食作物播种面积增加、种植业结构调整和作物单产提升对总产的贡献率分别为73.32%、15.98%和10.70%,但存在显著的时间差异。
Keeping the total grain production increasing is critical to national grain security. This study, using Helongjiang Provincial yearbook data, analyzed the changes in total grain production, yield, planting structure in Heilongjiang Province from 1981 to 2011. This paper also identified three important factors affecting Helongjiang's grain growth including increased planted acreage, improved yield, and adjusted structure of grain production. The main purpose of this paper is to provide the basis for sustainable development of agriculture in Heilongjiang Province, especially for the establishment of the comprehensive reform pilot area in the two plains for modern agriculture. Results from this research show:l) the planted acreage of Heilongjiang Province has increased from 7.282 million hectares in 1981 to 13.759 million in 2011, especially from 2004 to 2011, 64.47% increase; 2) for rice and corn, two high yield crops, the planted acreage share has risen from 24.73% in 1981 to 67.97% in 2011, while for soybeans and wheat, two low yield crops, the planted acreage share has decreased from 54.79% in 1981 to 28.18% in 2011; 3) The annual grain yield has increased to 4048.7 kg/hm2 in 2011 from 1716.6 kg/hm2 in 1981, a 135.86% growth, with an annual growth rate of 2.90%; and 4) throughout the study period, the total grain production has grown by 345.65%. Among them, the contribution rates of increased planted acreage, adjustment of planting structure, and increased yield were 73.32%, 15.98% andl 0.70% respectively with significant differences in different periods.