中文摘要：

我国当前债务规模约束的现实需求和财政预算领域的政策导向都显示推行中期预算（中期财政规划）将是下一阶段改革的重心。本文基于世界银行发布的1991—2008年178个国家（地区）的数据对中期预算对债务规模约束的有效性进行了验证，发现中期预算的实施有助于约束政府的债务规模，并在中期预算实施初始阶段更为有效。本文对中期预算的建立和发展（从不实施中期预算到开始实施或从初级阶段到高级阶段）的影响因素开展实证研究，发现债务规模、实施中期预算的时长、地域影响、国际组织推动和国家经济发达程度等因素对中期预算阶段递进都具有显著影响。其中，债务规模程度对中期预算阶段发展呈现双向影响：当债务占GDP的比重高于60％国际警戒线时，债务规模越大，越表现为维持现状（即不进行“晋级”）；反之，当低于60％国际警戒线时，债务规模越大，中期预算更容易“晋级”。

英文摘要：

Due to the need of debt constraint and the fiscal policies issued, it＇s possible that China will focus on the adoption of the MTEF （Medium Term Fiscal Framework） and the MTEF will he one key reform field. Based on the data of 178 countries or regions from 1991 to 2008 published by the World Bank, this paper verifies the effectiveness of the MTEF adoption to the debt scale constraint and find that the MTEF adoption can help reduce the government debt scale and the two basic levels of MTEF can play this role. What＇s more, we conduct another empirical research to find out which factors can influence the MTEF upgrade （upgrade means developing from nonperformance of the MTEF to performance or from the initial stage of the MTEF to the advanced one）, and find that the debt scale, the executing time of the MTEF, the regional influence, the support from some international organizations and the development degree have obvious effect to upgrade. Meanwhile, there are opposite effect direction in different debt scale. If the debt scale is above the International Warning Line of 60%, larger scale of debt will lead to MTEF level maintenance （no upgrade）. Otherwise, if below the International Warning Line of 60%, larger scale of debt will help the MTEF upgrade.