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中文摘要：
数据传输可靠性对于CAN总线系统的设计影响重大，关系到整个总线系统的正常运行。以CAN总线可调度理论为依据针对总线系统的消息时间参数进行研究分析，利用二阶矩概率分析手段推导公式，通过一个算例对报文传输可靠性进行分析并计算；编程利用Monte-Carlo方法进行模拟对比，从而得到了总线报文的传输可靠度。通过以上的计算方法可以进一步计算求得整个CAN总线网络系统的可靠度。
英文摘要：
The message transmission reliability is very important for the design of the CAN （Controller Area Network） bus system, which is related to the normal operation of the bus control system. The bus message transmission time parameters are analyzed based on the CAN bus scheduling theory. The formula is a derived by means of probability analysis based on the second-moment method. An example is calculated to get its message reliability and the result is contrasted with the Monte-Carlo method simulation, and then the bus message transmission reliability can be obtained. The reliability of the CAN bus system can be calculated using the method above. It is helpful for further scheduling theory studies.
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