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中文摘要：
百万吨死亡率是煤炭安全生产的一个重要考核指标,为准确预测煤炭行业安全生产的总趋势,利用灰色系统相关理论,建立了煤炭行业百万吨死亡率的GM（1,1）预测模型。同时鉴于GM（1,1）模型预测精度很低,建立残差修正GM（1,1）预测模型对模型进行了二次修正,并利用该修正模型成功预测出我国煤矿2009年的百万吨死亡率将首次降到1以下,权威机构数据表明,预测结果是可参考的。
英文摘要：
The mortality per million tons of coal is an important indicator to assess the safety in coal production.For predicting the general trend of safety in the production of coal industry,a the GM（1,1） model for the prediction of the mortality per million tons of coal was established by using the theory of gray system.Since the prediction accuracy of GM（1,1） model is very low,a GM（1,1）model with residual error corrections was established,and it was used to successfully product the mortality per million tons of coal production of China＇s coal mines in 2009,which was reduced to one for the first time.The statistical analysis of authoritative data indicated that the prediction result could be used as a reference.
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