中文摘要：

这份报纸学习生产出口和它的决定因素的汉语的持续时间，用 disaggregated 6 位水平从 1995 ～ 2007 的加音的系统产品贸易数据。考克斯比例的危险， Weibull 和指数的模型被用来在出口上检验各种各样的因素的效果持续时间。出口持续时间趋于相当短命，这被揭示。GDP 和出口目的地人均的 GDP 在出口持续时间上有积极效果，这也被发现，当与远、被陆地包围的国家的贸易关系通常具有更短的持续时间时。另外，出口持续时间是更长的为区分并且有大起始的贸易价值的部分和部件产品，以及产品。WTO 会员为更长的出口持续时间也是重要的。我们的实验分析建议发达市场例如美国和 EU，对中国重要，并且应该仍然长远来说是为中国出口生长的主要来源。而且，公司的技术革新和自由贸易协议协商愿望对持续出口生长有用。

英文摘要：

This paper studies the duration of Chinese manufacturing exports and its determinants, using disaggregated 6-digit level Harmonized System product trade data from 1995 to 2007. Cox proportional hazard, Weibull and exponential models are used to examine the effects of various factors on export duration. It is revealed that export duration tends to be rather short-lived. It is also found that GDP and GDP per capita of the export destination have positive effects on export duration, while trade relationships with distant and landlocked countries are generally of shorter duration. In addition, export duration is longer for differentiated and parts and components products, as well as products with large initial trade values. WTO membership is also important for longer export duration. Our empirical analysis suggests that developed markets, such as the USA and the EU, are important to China, and should still be the major sources for Chinese export growth in the long run. Moreover, technical innovation of firms and free trade agreement negotiations will be helpful for sustainable export growth.