根据混沌理论,对汶川大地震余震等待时间通过相空间重构,应用互信息法、Cao方法确定出重构参数,并分别计算了该序列的关联维、最大Lyapunov指数以及Kolmogorov熵等特征量。结果表明汶川大地震余震等待时间序列中存在明显的混沌特性,是非线性混沌动力系统演化的结果;并对余震等待时间序列的混沌性态及其产生的根源进行了简单的探索。研究结果可进一步研究汶川大地震余震等待时间序列的复杂性、演化规律及预测参考。
According to chaos theory, through the waiting time series of aftershocks of Wenchuan earthquake, and the phase space reconstruction, the reconstruction parameters were determined by the application of mutual informa- tion and Cao method, and the characteristic quantities as correlation dimension, maximal Lyapunov index and the Kolmogorov entropy were calculated. All the results indicate that there is an obvious chaotic characteristic in the waiting time series of aftershocks of Wenchuan earthquake which is resulted from evolution of the non-linear chaotic dynamic system. Finally, the chaotic behavior of waiting time series of aftershocks and its source were discussed. The research gives a reference to further study on the complexity and evolutionary law of the waiting time series of aftershocks of Wenchuan earthquake.