中文摘要：

本文利用中国A股分析师报告数据,实证考察分析师特性、所属机构和竞争环境对分析师预测发布领先—跟随行为的影响。结果表明,分析师特性及所属机构对发布领先度具显著影响。在跟进股票具有更长研究经历、更高的历史领先度、具有更长一般研究经历以及所属机构年度发布报告数越多的分析师,其发布领先度更大;而具有明星荣誉、其它股票上更高历史领先度的分析师,其发布领先度更小;分析师跟进股票的数量具有对发布领先度的间接正向溢出效应影响。竞争环境对发布领先度也具显著影响。目标股票跟进分析师数越多,发布领先度越大;评级标准差代表的信息差异则同时具有对发布领先度负向风险效应和正向机会效应的影响。这些结果即表明影响分析师领先发布的因素在中国具有与西方市场不同的表现,也为领先或跟随发布时间决策的内生性观点提供支持。

英文摘要：

This article carries out researches on the leading and fol- lowing behavior of analyst formed by the publishing time of fore- cast report. By analyzing the research report data released by A-share market analyst of China from 2000 to Sep.23rd, 2010, the paper has taken an empirical study on how the analysts＇ leading or following behavior is influenced by their character, the institution they belong to and the competitive environment they are in. The result shows that the character of analysts and the institution they belong to have the significant influence on the their leading role to forecast. Ana- lysts who have more research experiences on the stocks and whose institution is the lead underwriter of the target company are more likely to be the lead to forecast. Meanwhile, star analysts who have leadership on other stocks tend to follow. The number of stocks one analyst follows has both a negative influence on the dispersing ef- fect of leadership and a positive influence on the spillover effect. The competitive environment has significant effect to the leadership of analysts＇ forecasts. Target stocks that covered by more analysts lead to more leadership. The information differences represented by the rating standard differences influence the risk effect negatively and the opportunity effect positively. The results point out that some factors have both positive and negative influence for the first time, and at the same time verify that there exists a lot of differences between analysts of China and western analysts in the influencing factors of leading and following behavior. Analysts with star reputa- tion in China present a notable negative influence on their lead role to forecast, exactly opposite to the western situation. The empirical conclusions of the paper support the endogenous view of whether taking the lead to forecast or to follow the forecast, and the conclu- sions can be explained by the model taken by analysts strategically.