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中文摘要：
基于马尔科夫理论的原理,将各种致灾因素变化过程视作马尔科夫过程,分析了1990-2008年陕西旱作农区的旱灾结构变化。通过转移矩阵和趋势因子的计算,发现1994、1995、1999和2000年旱灾结构变化明显,以2008年陕西旱作农区的旱灾负荷系数作为初始向量,预测了今后10年的旱灾变化情况。各致灾因素中以降水量和蒸发量为主,温度的负荷系数波动中略有上升,干暖化趋势愈发明显。预测2011-2014年前后极有可能出现严重旱情,并就旱灾应对提出了几点对策。
英文摘要：
Based on the principle of Markov theory,the change of all kinds of disaster-causing factors was considered as a Markov process to analyze the structural change of dry-land farming area in Shaanxi from 1990 to 2008.Counting of transfer matrix and trend factor came to the results that the structural of drought changed significantly in 1994,1995,1999,and 2000.Using the load coefficient of 2008 as the initial vector to predict the change of drought about the next 10 years.Precipitation and evaporation were the main disaster-causing factors.The load coefficient of temperature rise slightly.Drying and warming trend becomes apparently.There will be a serious drought around 2011-2014 and putting forward several suggestions of how to defense the drought disaster.
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