中文摘要：

实际电力系统中，系统电压凹陷特征及设备电压凹陷耐受能力具有不确定性的特点，给敏感设备电压凹陷敏感度评估带来了困难。在深入分析现有评估方法及不确定性影响因素的基础上，综合考虑系统侧和设备侧两方面的不确定性，提出一种基于模糊变量与随机变量组合的不确定性综合评估方法。将供电系统产生的电压凹陷特征和待评估敏感设备对电压扰动的耐受能力分别处理为模糊变量和随机变量，直接利用样本数据估计模型参数。最后通过仿真实例验证了所提出评估模型及算法的合理性和准确性，该方法具有一定的理论价值和明显的工程应用价值。

英文摘要：

In practical power system, both the voltage sag characteristics occurring in power supply system and the voltage disturbance tolerable ability of sensitive equipment are uncertain, which makes it difficult to evaluate the sensitivity of sensitive equipment to voltage sag. After analyzing the existing assessment methods and the uncertainties of the influence factors deeply, a new integrated uncertain evaluation method based on the combination of fuzzy variable and random variable is proposed comprehensively considering the uncertainties of power system disturbance and equipment tolerant ability. The voltage sag characteristic at the power supply site and the voltage sag tolerable ability of equipment are treated as fuzzy variable and random variable respectively, and the parameters of the evaluation model are estimated by practice samples. The simulation results prove that this method is reasonable and accurate.