本文通过对中国1987年到2009年省级面板数据的分析和检验基础上,以金融发展水平作为门槛变量对我国金融发展与经济增长的非线性关系进行了考察。研究发现:(1)在不同的金融发展水平下,中国的金融发展对经济增长的作用是不一样的,表现为门槛效应和边际效率递减的非线性特征。(2)这种非线性关系在东中西部地区所表现的形式也不相同,具体来说,西部地区的门槛值要高于中部,而中部地区又高于东部;东部的金融发展对经济增长的促进作用最大,其次是中部,西部最低,而其边际效率递减特征在东部较为明显。(3)在中西部,大于门槛值的样本点所占比例较小,为减小区域差距,促进经济收敛,应大力发展中西部的金融发展水平。
Using financial development as a threshold variable, we testify the relationship between financial de- velopment and economic growth by analyzing and testing the Chinese panel data of province lever from 1987 to 2009. The conclusion is that ( 1 ) During this period, the effects of financial development on economic growth change over the level of financial development, characterized by the threshold effect and the diminishing mar- ginal effect. (2) The nonlinear relationships in eastern, central and western region have their own characteris- tics, in particular, the western region of the threshold value is higher than the central, and the central region is higher than the east. The role of financial development to economic growth is the biggest in the east, the second is the east, the west minimum, and the marginal decreasing effect is more obvious in the east area. (3) In the central and western region, the sample proportion that greater than the threshold value is small, in order to re- duce the regional gap and promote economic convergence, we should vigorously promote the financial develop- ment level.