本文运用孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,对新疆及邻区的某些地震区边界进行了修正,对未来震情进行了重新研判并给出了这些地震区未来震情的的四要素预测结果.结果表明:新源-阿拉木图地震区即将有巨震发生,中吉边境地震区即将有大震发生,哈密-阿勒泰-厄斯克门地震区未来有大震或巨震发生,博湖、库尔勒、拜城、与昆仑山口西地震区未来有强震发生,若羌地震区未来有中强震发生.本文研究结果可供有关部门参考.
According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us, the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the Xinjiang region and its border areas is reanalyzed in the present paper. The boundaries of some seismic zones are also redefined. Meanwhile, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong or strong earthquake, are also presented. The results suggest that an impending great earthquake will occur in Xinyuan-Almaty seismic zone, a large earthquake will happen in China-Kyrghyzstan border seismic zone, a large or great earthquakes will happen in Hami-Aletai-Oskemen border seismic zone, strong earthquakes will occur in Bohu, Kuerle, Baicheng, and Kunlunshankouxi seismic zones respectively, and a moderate earthquake will occur in Ruoqiang seismic zones. The analysis results above could be considered by the related department.