中文摘要：

目的探讨重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数随时间的变化规律，为控制和预防肺结核提供科学依据。方法采用SPSS13．0软件对2005～2009年重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数资料建立ARIMA模型，利用该模型预测2010年1月～12月的涂阳肺结核月发病数，对模型的短期预测及其效果进行初步评价。结果建立的ARIMA（1，1，0）×（0，1，1）12模型是拟合重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病数的合适模型，2005～2009年观测值落在拟合值95％的可信区间内，2010年预测值的平均相对误差为6．31％。结论ARIMA（1，1，0）×（0，1，1）12模型能很好地预测重庆市涂阳肺结核月发病情况，为控制和预防肺结核提供了可靠依据。

英文摘要：

Objective To investigate the variation of the monthly incidence of smeavpositive tuberculosis with time in Chongqing, so to provide a scientific evidence for the control and prevention of tuberculosis. Methods Using the SPSS 13.0 software, we established an ARIMA model with the monthly incidence data of smear-positive tuberculosis （2005-2009）, and the model was used to forecast the monthly incidence of Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2010. The short-term forecasting efficacy was evaluated. Results The established ARIMA （1,1,0）× （0,1,1）12 model was suitable for forecasting the monthly incidence of smear- positive tuberculosis in Chongqing. The observed values of 2005 2009 were in the 95 % confidence interval of the fitted values, and the average relative error of the predictive value was 6.31% for 2010. Conclusion ARIMA （1,1,0） × （0,1,1）12 model can satisfactorily forecast the monthly incidence of smear-positive tuberculosis in Chongqing, which provides a reliable evidence for control and prevention of tuberculosis.