中文摘要：

本文利用GDP季度同比增长率和其他月度指标的混频序列构建动态因子模型,以GDP增长率中因子成分作为经济周期性成分的度量,允许各指标对相同的外生冲击有不同的响应路径,在此基础上构造中国宏观经济一致指数,研究中国经济的周期性波动特征。结果表明：①利用混频数据构建的一致指数与实际产出的变化态势比较吻合,近一轮下滑始于2010年6月,2012年8月之后走势趋稳;②中国经济的周期性波动具有强持续性,政府应减少对微观经济行为的过度干预,发挥市场在资源配置中的作用,逐步提高经济的自我调节能力。

英文摘要：

In this paper,we develop a dynamic factor model with mixed-frequency series of GDP quarterly year-on-year growth rate and other monthly economic indicators,in which the factor in GDP growth rate is taken as the cyclical component of economic activity,and the path of response to the same exogenous shocks of each variable is different. Using this model,we extract a new coincident index to describe China＇s economic conditions,and investigate the characteristics of China＇s economic cyclical fluctuations. The results show that this new coincident index is basically consistent with variation of the growth rate of real output; the first signs of recent decline became visible in June 2010,and the pace of decline has moderated since August 2012. Furthermore,we find that the persistence of output fluctuations in China is very high,so the government should reduce the excessive intervention to the microeconomic behavior,offer bigger role for markets in resource allocation,to improve the economic self-adjusting ability gradually.