采用Shapley值法,分别从债券市场和股票市场组成的金融体系对欧元区主要成员国进行风险贡献程度的分析,考察各单个市场对相应的金融系统的风险贡献的变化情况.实证发现,两个金融系统均表现出危机程度较严重的国家,其风险贡献占比较大,且它们的风险贡献占比沿着危机前、次贷危机时期、欧债危机时期的演变而逐渐上升,相应地其他国家的风险贡献占比呈下降趋势.特别地,欧债危机爆发后,债券金融系统各国的风险贡献占比出现极端化现象,受危机影响较小的国家则在危机中扮演了稳定市场的角色.
Based on Shapley Value, this paper analyses the systemic risk contributions of the financial systems, which are composed by the bond markets and stock markets respectively of the main countries of the euro zone, and further investigates the movement of systemic risk contribution of each country. The results indicate that both financial systems show the more serious affected by the crisis, the larger of systemic risk contribution contributed by the countries, and the risk contribution gradually increase with the time. While the other coun- tries' risk contributions present a downward trend. Moreover, after the outbreak of European sovereign debt crisis, the risk contribution of the bond market has an extreme phenomenon. The countries less affected by the crisis have played a stabilizing role in the system.