【目的】研究近50年来中国黄淮海麦区小麦干热风时空变化特征,针对其变化趋势,提出有效防御干热风的科学对策。【方法】基于黄淮海地区68个气象台站1961—2010年的逐日气象资料,采用中国气象局发布的气象行业标准"小麦干热风灾害等级"指标,系统分析近50年来黄淮海冬小麦高温低湿型干热风年平均发生日数与过程次数的时空分布特征,针对其变化趋势,提出有效防御干热风的主要途径和技术措施。【结果】(1)1961—2010年,黄淮海地区冬小麦轻度、重度高温低湿型干热风出现的平均日数和过程次数随时间的变化总体呈减少趋势,其中1960—1980年和2001—2010年均为缓慢减少时期,1981—2000年变化则不太明显。1968年各地干热风危害均最为严重,1987年危害均最轻;(2)近50年来,该区轻度、重度干热风灾害的年际变化很大,这和该时期气象要素匹配程度有关。各地20世纪60年代干热风发生最严重。其次,为20世纪70年代和最近10年。20世纪80、90年代危害较轻;(3)就空间平均分布状况而言,该区轻度和重度干热风年平均发生日数和干热风过程次数分布具有一致性,总体呈中间高、两头低的趋势,且地区间差异都很显著,同纬度地区的内陆高于沿海。河北省的北部和西北部、河南省的东南部一带等地干热风危害最轻,河北省南部、河南省西北部等地危害最重,该地作物产量受到冲击很大,生产相对更脆弱。【结论】1961—2010年,中国黄淮海地区冬小麦干热风灾害总体表现为减少趋势,但由于不同时期和不同区域气象要素温度、水分、风速等匹配组合的差异,干热风灾害年际变化很大,地区间差异显著,在不同时期、不同区域仍有可能发生。实际生产中,必须重视小麦干热风灾害的防御,可从生物措施、农业技术措施和化学措施着手来减少干热风对小麦生产的影响和危害?
【Objective】The spatial-temporal changes of dry-hot wind of winter wheat in Huanghuaihai plain under climate change were studied and the effective defense strategies were proposed.【Method】Based on the daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2010 of 68 meteorological stations in Huanghuaihai Plain,by using the meteorological industry standards of "Disaster grade of dry-hot wind for wheat" published by the China Meteorological Administration,the spatial-temporal changes of annual average days and process times of high temperature and low humidity dry-hot wind for winter wheat in Huanghuaihai Plain were systematically analyzed,and the defensive countermeasures were specially put forward.【Result】 As for high temperature and low humidity dry-hot wind for winter wheat in Huanghuaihai Plain,from 1961 to 2010,the annual average days and process times of light and severe dry-hot wind showed a decreasing trend.The light and severe dry-hot wind slowly reduced during the periods of 1960-1980 and 2001-2010,and did not change significantly during the period of 1981-2000.The most serious damages were both found in 1968,and the lightest damages were both found in 1987.In the past 50 years,the inter-annual variabilities of light and severe dry-hot wind were great,which were related with the match of temperature,moisture and wind speed.The most serious damages of light and severe dry-hot wind both occurred in the 1960s,and then Then were in the 1970s and the last 10 years.The lighter damages appeared in the 1980s and the 1990s.The spatial distributions of annual average days and process times of light and severe dry-hot wind were consistent,showing a trend of high in the middle and low in the ends,a significant differences among regions and higher in the inland than on the coast at the same latitude.The damage was the lightest around the north and northwest of Hebei Province,and southeast of Henan Province,and serious in the southern of Hebei Province and in the northwestern of Henan Province.Thus the crop yields wer