需求预测是收益管理预测研究的最主要内容。针对目前航空公司在收益管理中航线客流量预测的特点,从竞争情报的角度出发,分析航线客流量预测的基本方法和原理以及预测模型的演变过程。结合区域航空客运市场的特征,通过比较各方法的优缺点,引入组合预测法,并在此基础上构建区域航线客流量组合预测模型,最后通过实证分析来演示该模型,并验证组合预测方法的有效性。
Demand forecasting is the main content of the research on revenue management forecasting. Aiming at the characteristics of air passenger forecasting in revenue management, this paper analyzes some basic methods and theories of passenger flow forecasting and develops process of forecasting model from competive intelligence arpects. According to the characters of regional air marketing, through comparing the advantages and disadvantages of each forecasting method, this paper also introduces a combination forecast model, and constructs a combination forecast model. At last, this paper gives an example to demonstrate the combination forecast model for airline passenger flow, and verify its validity.