中文摘要：

利用北京市1987年-2007年的地区投入产出表,在能源消耗总量约束条件下构建了北京市1987年、1992年、1997年、2002年和2007年五个时期的投入产出优化模型,通过产业结构调整的手段来实现经济效益最大。通过五个历史时期的优化模拟,采用灰色关联度分析比较了各个历史时期的真实产业结构与优化产业结构的相似程度。研究表明：①北京市的产业结构调整的重点在于发展第三产业,包括批发和零售业、金融保险业和其他社会服务业部门;②除1987年外,北京市其他各时期工业调整方向需要降低大部分工业的比重,2002年和2007年则需要适度提高纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒制品业、通用专用设备制造业、交通运输设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业和通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业的比重;③通过比较五个时期北京市产业结构的优化模拟,得出北京市1997年的产业结构优化程度最高,2002年则最低,同时数据显示北京市2002年以后的产业结构优化程度低于2002年以前,北京市产业结构优化仍旧具有较大的调整潜力。最后,提出了北京市产业结构未来调整的方向。

英文摘要：

This study developed an input-output optimization model for Beijing under constraints of energy consumption,with the objective to maximize economic benefits by industrial structure adjustment in 1987,1992,1997,2002,and 2007,respectively,based on Beijing’s input-output tables.The similarity of the industrial structure between simulations and reality was analyzed by the grey interconnection degree method.Results show that 1）the emphasis of Beijing’s industrial structure adjustment is the development of the tertiary industry,involving increasing the proportions of three sectors,i.e.,wholesale and retail trade,finance and insurance,and other social services;2）Except 1987,the proportions of a majority of Beijing’s industries should be decreased.In 2002 and 2007,the proportions of five sectors,i.e.,wearing apparel,leather,furs,and related products,common and special equipment,transport equipment,electric equipment,and machinery,telecommunication equipment and computer,and other electronic equipment should be increased;3）By simulation and comparison,the maximum value of the optimum degree of Beijing’s industrial structure was 85.78%in 1997 and the minimum value was 78.51%in 2002.After 2002 the optimum degree of Beijing’s industrial structure was lower than before,so industrial restructuring should be accelerated.Finally,directions of Beijing’s industrial structure adjustment in the future were discussed.The tertiary industry should be vigorously promoted,especially the sectors of wholesale and retail trade,finance and insurance,and other social services.Although the proportion of agriculture should be decreased in national economy according to the calculated results of the input-output optimization model,the proportion of agriculture is very low in Beijing so that the potential of adjustment has been very limited.Investments in science and technology of agriculture should be increased in order to improve unit value added.The proportion of Beijing’s major industries should be decreased,promoting techn