中文摘要：

基于1995年至2009年碳排放特征分组的中国工业投入产出数据,采用方向距离函数估算工业的生产效率和绿色生产率,基于方向距离函数的SML指数方法测算绿色生产率增长指数,从时间和行业两个维度比较分析工业绿色生产率的变化趋势和行业差异,结合改进的STIRPAT模型面板数据模型估计方法,就绿色生产率对工业低碳经济发展的作用及影响工业低碳发展的主要因素进行实证研究。研究结果表明,相对于不考虑碳排放的生产效率,绿色生产率在高碳排放强度行业上升,在低碳排放强度行业下降;绿色生产率先升后降,对工业低碳发展有显著正向影响,对高碳排放强度行业作用更大;绿色技术进步对工业绿色生产率增长和低碳经济发展的促进作用显著大于绿色技术效率;碳排放强度与经济产出关系具有U型曲线特征,化石能源结构调整不能促进工业低碳发展。

英文摘要：

This research paper adopts direction distance function to estimate industrial production efficiency and green productivity on the basis of Chinese industrial input-output data grouped by the characteristics of carbon emissions from 1995 to 2009. This study measures the growth index of green productivity based on Sequential Malmquist-Luenberger index method by direction dis- tance function and analyzes industrial green productivity trends and industry differences in dimensions of time and industry. We do empirical research on green productivity~ impacts on the industrial low-carbon development as well as the main factors ＇affect- ing the industrial low-carbon development with an improved model of STIRPAT （ Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population Affluence and Technology）. The results show that green productivity decreases in industries of low carbon emission intensity and increases in those of high carbon emissions intensity comparing to the productivity without consideration of the carbon emissions. Green productivity, which rises and then drops, has a significant positive impact on the industrial low-carbon development and a greater effect on industries of high carbon emissions intensity. Green technical progress plays a greater role on the growth of green productivity and low-carbon development than that of green technical efficiency. The relationship of carbon emissions intensity and the economic output has a U-shaped curve characteristics and the adjustment of fossil energy consumption structure cannot promote industrial low-carbon development.