中文摘要：

基于对热带气旋生成频数和大尺度环流相关关系的分析，利用SINTEX-F海气耦合模式预测的大尺度大气环流信息，通过提取模式预测较好与热带气旋生成密切相关的有用信息，建立了一个基于动力模式预测结果的南海和西太平洋热带气旋年频数预测模型，并对1982--2010年的热带气旋生成频数进行预测试验与检验。SINTEX-F海气耦合模式能够较好预测部分与热带气旋生成密切相关的大尺度环流特征，其中包括热带气旋活动区域的海平面气压、对流层风垂直切变、850hPa热带辐合带和850hPa90°E附近的越赤道气流。利用这些大尺度环流建立的预测因子与热带气旋生成频数有很好的相关关系，利用这些预测因子建立的多元回归预测模型对热带气旋频数的拟合率为0．8（相关系数，超过99．9％的信度检验）。预测模型的交叉检验结果表明模型整体预测效果较好。交叉检验预测结果与实况热带气旋频数的相关为O．71储!过了99．9％的信度检验），距平同号率为82．8％。但模型对热带气旋异常年的预测误差较大。

英文摘要：

Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone frequency and large scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by JAMSTEC SINTEX-F coupled model is used to build a statistical model to predict the tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. The SINTEX-F coupled model has relatively good prediction skill for some circulation features associated with the tropical cyclone frequency including sea level pressure （SLP）, wind vertical shear, tropical convergence belt and cross-equatorial air flow. Predictors derived from these large scale circulations have good relationships with the tropical cyclone frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. A multivariate linear regression （MLR） model is further designed using these predictors. This model shows good prediction skill with the anomaly correlation coefficient reaching, based on the cross validation, 0.71 between the observed and predicted tropical cyclone frequency. However, it also shows relatively large prediction errors in extreme tropical cyclone years （1994 and 1998, for example）.