中文摘要：

和一个庄稼模拟模型，在四个代表性的 agro 气象学的车站的长期的地实验数据被用来在过去的三十年解开大米收益变化的气候变化，变化更新，和授精管理的贡献。我们发现在 1981-2009 变化期间，更新由 16%-52% 增加了米饭产量，管理改进由产量从 16% ～ 10% 改变了的米饭的气候变化的 0-16% ，和贡献增加了产量。变化更新和气候的否定影响在米饭生产上改变的管理改进偏移量。在主要气候变量之中，在太阳的放射的减少到 0.1%per 年平均减少了米饭产量。温度变化的影响有一个明确的空间模式。它在 Tongcheng 车站在 Xinbin 和 Ganyu 车站并且为迟了的米饭为单个米饭每年由 0.04%-0.4% 增加了产量，由在 Tongcheng 在 Mianyang 车站和早米饭为单个米饭每年由 0.2%-0.4% 对比减少的产量车站。在 1981-2009 期间，米饭变化更新被热要求的增加描绘，谷物数字每尖铁和收获索引。新变化比旧的对气候变化不太敏感。高热的要求，高收益潜力和热的发展和农学的管理的改进，容忍的米饭变化应该被鼓励在未来遇见气候变化和增加的食物需求的挑战。

英文摘要：

The long-term field experiment data at four representative agro-meteorological stations, together with a crop simulation model, were used to disentangle the contributions of climate change, variety renewal, and fertilization management to rice yield change in the past three decades. We found that during 1981-2009 varieties renewal increased rice yield by 16%-52%, management improvement increased yield by 0-16%, and the contribu- tions of climate change to rice yield varied from - 16% to 10%. Varieties renewal and management improvement offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice production. Among the major climate variables, decreases in solar radiation reduced rice yield on average by 0.1% per year. The impact of temperature change had an explicit spatial pattern. It increased yield by 0.04%-0.4% per year for single rice at Xinbin and Ganyu station and for late rice at Tongcheng station, by contrast reduced yield by 0.2%- 0.4% per year for single rice at Mianyang station and early rice at Tongcheng station. During 1981-2009, rice varieties renewal was characterized by increases in thermal requirements, grain number per spike and harvest index. The new varieties were less sensitive to climate change than old ones. The development of high thermal require- ments, high yield potential and heat tolerant rice varieties, together with improvement of agronomic management, should be encouraged to meet the challenges of climate change and increasing food demand in future.