欢迎您！东篱公司
退出
-
申报数据库
-
立项数据库
-
成果数据库
-
项目获奖数据库
中文摘要：
构建通用的突发事件预测模型有助于应急管理主体以统一的方式处理各类突发事件。运用系统理论,将突发事件视为一个系统,抽象出了各类突发事件发生发展的统一行为模式;针对突发事件发生发展的不确定性,提出了用于突发事件预测的贝叶斯网络模型的构建方法,包括变量的选取和网络结构的确定。提出的方法能够根据各领域的专家知识和统计数据,通过不确定性推理对各类突发事件的主要状态与损失后果进行预测。最后,通过台风事例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。
英文摘要：
A generic model for predicting emergency event is proposed to help address various events consistently.Utilizing system theory,emergency event is first viewed as a system,and the generic behavior mode about various events is analyzed.Then the method for constructing the Bayesian networks model of predicting emergency events is proposed to deal with the uncertainty of the events,including the nodes selecting and network structure acquiring.The method proposed in this paper can help predict various emergency events using expert＇s knowledge and historic data.Finally typhoon event is incorporated as an example to demonstrate its effectiveness in practice.
同期刊论文项目
同项目期刊论文
期刊信息
位置：