中文摘要：

概率积分法是条带开采地表移动和变形预计常用的方法，而概率积分法预计的精度取决于其预计参数的确定。以国内大量的条带开采实测资料为基础，应用相似理论对条带开采地表沉陷的相似现象进行了模糊聚类分析，计算出了条带开采地表沉陷预计参数。根据所得条带开采地表沉陷相似现象的分类及其地表沉陷预计参数，应用模式识别对待求条带开采地表沉陷预计参数进行了求取。工程实例表明，用模糊优化确定的预计参数进行条带开采地表移动和变形预计，其预计结果更加可靠、准确。

英文摘要：

Probability integral method is typically used in predicting the surface displacement and distortion for strip pillar mining, but the prediction precision lies on its predicting parameters. According to a mass of practical data from the ground movement monitoring stations in China, the fuzzy cluster analysis of the resembling phenomena clusters on mining subsidence was carried out by the similarity theory, and the basic strata displacement parameters of strip pillar mining were calculated out. Based on the classification of strip pillar mining resembling phenomena clusters and the basic strata displacement parameters, the surface displacement parameters of strip pillar mining for a new mine were determined by fuzzy pattern recognition. An engineering instance shows that the surface displacement and distortion, calculated with the fuzzy-optimized predicting parameters, are more valid and reliable.